Center for Medical Ethics and Health Policy Staff Publications
Publication Date
8-16-2024
Journal
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
DOI
10.1093/infdis/jiae179
PMID
38581432
PMCID
PMC11326810
PubMedCentral® Posted Date
4-6-2024
PubMedCentral® Full Text Version
Post-print
Published Open-Access
yes
Keywords
Humans, COVID-19, COVID-19 Vaccines, Middle Aged, Adult, Adolescent, SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Young Adult, United States, Markov Chains, Male, Female, COVID-19, vaccination, booster, individual, economic, model
Abstract
Background: With coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward.
Methods: We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine.
Results: For an 18-49 year old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64 year old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1278 and $119-$1706 for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% preexisting protection against infection (eg, vaccinated 9 months earlier).
Conclusions: There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year.
Included in
Bioethics and Medical Ethics Commons, COVID-19 Commons, Health Policy Commons, Influenza Virus Vaccines Commons, Medical Sciences Commons