Faculty, Staff and Student Publications
Publication Date
11-20-2023
Journal
Nature Communications
Abstract
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.
Keywords
Humans, COVID-19, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2, Uncertainty
DOI
10.1038/s41467-023-42680-x
PMID
37985664
PMCID
PMC10661184
PubMedCentral® Posted Date
11-20-2023
PubMedCentral® Full Text Version
Post-print
Published Open-Access
yes
Included in
Community Health and Preventive Medicine Commons, COVID-19 Commons, Epidemiology Commons