Publication Date
7-1-2021
Journal
JAMIA Open
DOI
10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa074
PMID
34505002
PMCID
PMC7928848
PubMedCentral® Posted Date
1-24-2021
PubMedCentral® Full Text Version
Post-Print
Published Open-Access
yes
Keywords
COVID-19, Simulation, Risk assessment, Continuity planning
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our simulator simulates the entire course of infection and transmission of the virus among individuals in heterogeneous populations, subject to operations and influences, such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and community infection. It provides command-line and Jupyter notebook interfaces and a plugin system for user-defined operations.
RESULTS: The simulator provides quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreaks in a variety of scenarios and assists the development of public health policies, risk-reduction operations, and emergency response plans.
DISCUSSION: Our simulator is powerful, flexible, and customizable, although successful applications require realistic estimation and robustness analysis of population-specific parameters.
CONCLUSION: Risk assessment and continuity planning for COVID-19 outbreaks are crucial for the continued operation of many organizations. Our simulator will be continuously expanded to meet this need.
Included in
COVID-19 Commons, Diseases Commons, Epidemiology Commons, Medical Sciences Commons, Medical Specialties Commons
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