Publication Date
9-1-2023
Journal
European Respiratory Journal
DOI
10.1183/13993003.00806-2023
PMID
37678951
PMCID
PMC10533946
PubMedCentral® Posted Date
9-28-2023
PubMedCentral® Full Text Version
Post-print
Published Open-Access
yes
Keywords
Middle Aged, Humans, Bronchitis, Chronic, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Forced Expiratory Volume, Vital Capacity, Smoking, Spirometry, Lung
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of developing clinical COPD among smokers ranges from 13% to 22%. Identifying at-risk individuals who will develop overt disease in a reasonable timeframe may allow for early intervention. We hypothesised that readily available clinical and physiological variables could help identify ever-smokers at higher risk of developing chronic airflow limitation (CAL).
METHODS: Among 2273 Lovelace Smokers' Cohort (LSC) participants, we included 677 (mean age 54 years) with normal spirometry at baseline and a minimum of three spirometries, each 1 year apart. Repeated spirometric measurements were used to determine incident CAL. Using logistic regression, demographics, anthropometrics, smoking history, modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire, comorbidities and spirometry, we related variables obtained at baseline to incident CAL as defined by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease and lower limit of normal criteria. The predictive model derived from the LSC was validated in subjects from the COPDGene study.
RESULTS: Over 6.3 years, the incidence of CAL was 26 cases per 1000 person-years. The strongest independent predictors were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV
CONCLUSION: In middle-aged ever-smokers, a simple predictive model with FEV
Included in
Critical Care Commons, Internal Medicine Commons, Medical Sciences Commons, Pulmonology Commons, Sleep Medicine Commons
Comments
See commentary "All roads lead to COPD… or not?" with doi: 10.1183/13993003.01470-2023.
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