The Potential Epidemiologic, Clinical, and Economic Value of a Universal Coronavirus Vaccine: A Modelling Study

Authors

Sarah M Bartsch
Kelly J O'Shea
Danielle C John
Ulrich Strych
Maria Elena Bottazzi
Marie F Martinez
Allan Ciciriello
Kevin L Chin
Colleen Weatherwax
Kavya Velmurugan
Jessie Heneghan
Sheryl A Scannell
Peter J Hotez
Bruce Y Lee

Publication Date

2-1-2024

Journal

EClinicalMedicine

DOI

10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102369

PMID

38545093

PMCID

PMC10965405

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

1-11-2024

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Post-print

Published Open-Access

yes

Keywords

Coronavirus, Vaccine, Universal, Economic, Modelling

Abstract

BACKGROUND: With efforts underway to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine, otherwise known as a pan-coronavirus vaccine, this is the time to offer potential funders, researchers, and manufacturers guidance on the potential value of such a vaccine and how this value may change with differing vaccine and vaccination characteristics.

METHODS: Using a computational model representing the United States (U.S.) population, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the various clinical and economic outcomes of COVID-19 such as hospitalisations, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity losses, direct medical costs, and total societal costs, we explored the impact of a universal vaccine under different circumstances. We developed and populated this model using data reported by the CDC as well as observational studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS: A pan-coronavirus vaccine would be cost saving in the U.S. as a standalone intervention as long as its vaccine efficacy is ≥10% and vaccination coverage is ≥10%. Every 1% increase in efficacy between 10% and 50% could avert an additional 395,000 infections and save $1.0 billion in total societal costs ($45.3 million in productivity losses, $1.1 billion in direct medical costs). It would remain cost saving even when a strain-specific coronavirus vaccine would be subsequently available, as long as it takes at least 2-3 months to develop, test, and bring that more specific vaccine to the market.

INTERPRETATION: Our results provide support for the development and stockpiling of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and help delineate the vaccine characteristics to aim for in development of such a vaccine.

FUNDING: The National Science Foundation, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.