Temporal Trends and Geographic Variations in Mortality Rates From Tobacco and Firearms in the United States

Authors

Sarah A Palumbo
Robert S Levine
Janet D Robishaw
Charles H Hennekens

Publication Date

7-16-2023

Journal

Preventive Medicine

DOI

10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107622

PMID

37454875

PMCID

PMC10591857

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

10-1-2024

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Author MSS

Published Open-Access

yes

Keywords

Humans, United States, Firearms, Suicide, Male, Female, Adult, Cause of Death, Smoking, Mortality, Middle Aged

Abstract

We explored temporal trends and geographic variations in United States of America (US) mortality rates from smoking and firearms from 1999 to 2019. To do so, we used the publicly available Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) with Multiple Cause of Death files from 1999 to 2019. Using age-specific rates and ArcGIS Pro Advanced software for Optimized Hot Spot Analyses from Esri, we generated maps of statistically significant spatial clusters with 90-99% confidence intervals with the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for mortality from smoking-related causes and firearms. These data show temporal trends and geographic variations in mortality from smoking and firearms in the US. Smoking and firearm-related mortality from assault and suicide increased throughout the US and clustered in the Southeast. Firearm-related suicide also clustered in the continental West and Alaska. These descriptive data generate many hypotheses which are testable in analytic epidemiologic studies designed a priori to do so. The trends suggest smoking and firearm-related causes pose particular challenges to the Southeast and firearms also to the West and Alaska. These data may aid clinicians and public health authorities to implement evidence-based smoking avoidance and cessation programs as well as address firearm mortality, with particular attention to the areas of highest risks. As has been the case with cigarettes, individual behavior changes as well as societal changes are likely to be needed to achieve decreases in premature mortality.

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