Comparative Performance of Risk Prediction Models for Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

Authors

Hyun-Seok Kim
Xian Yu
Jennifer Kramer
Aaron P Thrift
Pete Richardson
Yao-Chun Hsu
Avegail Flores
Hashem B El-Serag
Fasiha Kanwal

Publication Date

2-1-2022

Journal

Journal of Hepatology

DOI

10.1016/j.jhep.2021.09.009

PMID

34563579

PMCID

PMC8786210

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

2-1-2022

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Author MSS

Published Open-Access

yes

Keywords

Adult, Aged, Area Under Curve, Carcinoma, Hepatocellular, Cohort Studies, Female, Hepatitis B, Humans, Liver Neoplasms, Male, Middle Aged, Population Surveillance, ROC Curve, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment, United States, United States Department of Veterans Affairs, Hepatitis B virus, hepatocelluar carcinoma, external validation

Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with chronic HBV infection. Several HCC risk prediction models are available to guide surveillance decisions, but their comparative performance remains unclear.

METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort of patients with HBV treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues at 130 Veterans Administration facilities between 9/1/2008 and 12/31/2018, we calculated risk scores from 10 HCC risk prediction models (REACH-B, PAGE-B, m-PAGE-B, CU-HCC, HCC-RESCUE, CAMD, APA-B, REAL-B, AASL-HCC, RWS-HCC). We estimated the models' discrimination and calibration. We calculated HCC incidence in risk categories defined by the reported cut-offs for all models.

RESULTS: Of 3,101 patients with HBV (32.2% with cirrhosis), 47.0% were treated with entecavir, 40.6% tenofovir, and 12.4% received both. During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, 113 patients developed HCC at an incidence of 0.75/100 person-years. AUC values for 3-year HCC risk were the highest for RWS-HCC, APA-B, REAL-B, and AASL-HCC (all >0.80). Of these, 3 (APA-B, RWS-HCC, REAL-B) incorporated alpha-fetoprotein. AUC values for the other models ranged from 0.73 for PAGE-B to 0.79 for CAMD and HCC-RESCUE. Of the 7 models with AUC >0.75, only APA-B was poorly calibrated. In total, 10-20% of the cohort was deemed low-risk based on the published cut-offs. None of the patients in the low-risk groups defined by PAGE-B, m-PAGE-B, AASL-HCC, and REAL-B developed HCC during the study timeframe.

CONCLUSION: In this national cohort of US-based patients with HBV on antiviral treatment, most models performed well in predicting HCC risk. A low-risk group, in which no cases of HCC occurred within a 3-year timeframe, was identified by several models (PAGE-B, m-PAGE-B, CAMD, AASL-HCC, REAL-B). Further studies are warranted to examine whether these patients could be excluded from HCC surveillance.

LAY SUMMARY: Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) could guide HCC surveillance decisions. In this large cohort of US-based patients receiving treatment for HBV, most published models discriminated between those who did or did not develop HCC, although the RWS-HCC, REAL-B, and AASL-HCC performed the best. If confirmed in future studies, these models could help identify a low-risk subset of patients on antiviral treatment who could be excluded from HCC surveillance.

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