Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

Publication Date

12-31-2024

Journal

Biostatistics

DOI

10.1093/biostatistics/kxae036

PMID

39255368

PMCID

PMC11823260

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

9-10-2024

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Post-print

Abstract

Dynamic prediction models capable of retaining accuracy by evolving over time could play a significant role for monitoring disease progression in clinical practice. In biomedical studies with long-term follow up, participants are often monitored through periodic clinical visits with repeat measurements until an occurrence of the event of interest (e.g. disease onset) or the study end. Acknowledging the dynamic nature of disease risk and clinical information contained in the longitudinal markers, we propose an innovative concordance-assisted learning algorithm to derive a real-time risk stratification score. The proposed approach bypasses the need to fit regression models, such as joint models of the longitudinal markers and time-to-event outcome, and hence enjoys the desirable property of model robustness. Simulation studies confirmed that the proposed method has satisfactory performance in dynamically monitoring the risk of developing disease and differentiating high-risk and low-risk population over time. We apply the proposed method to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data and develop a dynamic risk score of Alzheimer's Disease for patients with mild cognitive impairment using multiple longitudinal markers and baseline prognostic factors.

Keywords

Humans, Alzheimer Disease, Risk Assessment, Disease Progression, Cognitive Dysfunction, Models, Statistical, Algorithms, Longitudinal Studies, Neuroimaging, Machine Learning, Alzheimer’s disease, concordance-assisted learning, dynamic prediction, longitudinal markers, risk stratification

Published Open-Access

yes

Included in

Public Health Commons

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