Journal Articles

Publication Date



Journal of Ophthalmology


PURPOSE: to determine risk factors that affect nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) progression and establish a predictive model to estimate the probability of and time to progression in NPDR.

RESULTS: Two hundred thirty patients were included. Initially, 65 eyes (28.3%) had no retinopathy; 73 (31.7%) mild NPDR; 60 (26.1%) moderate NPDR; and 32 (13.9%) severe NPDR. Patients were followed for a mean of 5.8 years (±2.0 years; range 2.1-9.4 years). 164 (71.3%) eyes progressed during the follow-up. Time-independent risk factors affecting progression rate were age (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.99,

CONCLUSION: HbA1c level is a significant modifiable risk factor in controlling the progression of DR. The proposed model could be used to predict the time and rate of progression based on an individual's risk factors. A prospective multicenter study should be conducted to further validate our model.



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