Understanding the Implications of Under-Reporting, Vaccine Efficiency and Social Behavior On the Post-Pandemic Spread Using Physics informed Neural Networks: a Case Study of China

Authors

Samiran Ghosh
Alonso Ogueda-Oliva
Aditi Ghosh
Malay Banerjee
Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Publication Date

1-1-2023

Journal

PLoS One

Abstract

In late 2019, the emergence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, led to the implementation of stringent measures forming the zero-COVID policy aimed at eliminating transmission. Zero-COVID policy basically aimed at completely eliminating the transmission of COVID-19. However, the relaxation of this policy in late 2022 reportedly resulted in a rapid surge of COVID-19 cases. The aim of this work is to investigate the factors contributing to this outbreak using a new SEIR-type epidemic model with time-dependent level of immunity. Our model incorporates a time-dependent level of immunity considering vaccine doses administered and time-post-vaccination dependent vaccine efficacy. We find that vaccine efficacy plays a significant role in determining the outbreak size and maximum number of daily infected. Additionally, our model considers under-reporting in daily cases and deaths, revealing their combined effects on the outbreak magnitude. We also introduce a novel Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) approach which is extremely useful in estimating critical parameters and helps in evaluating the predictive capability of our model.

Keywords

Humans, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Neural Networks, Computer, China, Vaccines, Social Behavior