Language

English

Publication Date

4-1-2025

Journal

Hepatology Communications

DOI

10.1097/HC9.0000000000000673

PMID

40131003

PMCID

PMC11936654

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

3-24-2025

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Post-print

Abstract

Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a well-characterized disease with high short-term mortality. However, there is limited research on those with a "less severe condition" (moderate AH). This study aims to characterize in-depth patients with moderate AH (mAH), including the performance of mortality scoring systems, key prognostic factors, and survival over time.

Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study (2009-2019) included patients with mAH (MELD score ≤20 at admission). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC were used for analysis.

Results: We included 1845 patients with AH (20 centers, 8 countries) between 2009 and 2019. mAH was defined as a MELD score ≤20 at admission. Twenty-four percent met the criteria for an mAH episode. Patients with mAH tend to be older and have a higher proportion of females, with a median MELD of 17 (15-19), Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) of 33 (22-40), the trajectory of serum bilirubin of 0.83 (0.60-1.21), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 5 (2.96-8.60). The primary causes of death in mAH included multiple organ failure (34.1%) and infections (16.6%). The cumulative survival rates at 30, 90, and 180 days were 94.3%, 90.4%, and 88.2%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, age was the only significant predictor of 30-day mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27-1.76, p< 0.001). Mortality prediction models showed poor performance, with AUC for MELD (0.671), mDF (0.726), trajectory of serum bilirubin (0.733), and NLR (0.697).

Conclusions: Patients with moderate AH exhibited a mortality of 11.8% at 6 months, primarily driven by multiple organ failure and infections. These patients also exhibit a different clinical profile compared to those with sAH. Tailored models and therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term outcomes in mAH.

Keywords

Humans, Female, Male, Retrospective Studies, Middle Aged, Hepatitis, Alcoholic, Aged, Severity of Illness Index, Prognosis, Adult, ROC Curve, Bilirubin, Multiple Organ Failure, alcohol, alcohol-associated hepatitis, alcohol-associated liver disease, cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, outcome prediction

Published Open-Access

yes

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