Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

Language

English

Publication Date

10-1-2025

Journal

JAMA Network Open

DOI

10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.39258

PMID

41134572

PMCID

PMC12552931

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

10-24-2025

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Post-print

Abstract

Importance: Updated estimates of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) in the US are needed.

Objective: To calculate the most recent epidemiologic estimates of OPC in the US and provide projections for future trends up to 2040.

Design, setting, and participants: This cross-sectional epidemiological analysis used data from the recent National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The SEER-22 (excluding Illinois and Massachusetts) database provided data for incidence, prevalence, survival, and initial treatment by OPC stage. Patients with OPC diagnosed according to International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, Third Edition morphology codes were included. The analysis was conducted from September to October 2024.

Exposure: A diagnosis of OPC.

Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcomes were annual age-adjusted OPC incidence per 100 000 persons, limited-duration prevalence, survival rate, and initial treatment. The incidence rate and the estimated annual percentage change for the most recent period were determined according to trend analysis from 2006 to 2021 and were used to estimate the incidence rate up to 2040.

Results: There were 103 107 new OPC cases (40 051 patients [38.8%] aged ≥65 years; 82 820 male patients [80.3%]) recorded during 2006 to 2021. From 2006 to 2021, the incidence of OPC increased from 3.8 to 4.4 cases per 100 000 person-years. The projected incidence rates indicated a significant decrease for both female (1.1 cases per 100 000 person-years) and younger (aged < 65 years, 2.0 cases per 100 000 person-years) patients in 2040. The 10-year limited-duration prevalence increased from 0.024% in 2012 to 0.033% in 2021. The 1-year period survival rate of OPC was 88.2% (95% CI, 87.7%-88.7%), the 3-year period survival rate was 76.5% (95% CI, 75.9%-77.1%), and the 5-year period survival rate was 69.2% (95% CI, 68.5%-69.9%). Of 7495 patients with OPC in 2021, 1621 (21.6%) were classified as receiving no treatment, 1647 (22.0%) received single treatment, and 4227 (56.4%) received multiple treatments initially. The distribution of treatments was similar from 2006 to 2021. Of 15 648 patients with localized stage disease, 7171 (45.8%) received no treatment. In 2021, more patients aged 65 years and older received no treatment compared with patients younger than 65 years (865 of 3525 patients [24.5%] vs 756 of 3970 patients [19.0%]).

Conclusions and relevance: In this cross-sectional study of OPC, the incidence of OPC in the US increased rapidly from 2006 to 2021 among male individuals, particularly among those aged 65 years and older. Although the distribution of treatment was similar through the assessed years, increased limited-duration prevalence and higher than previously reported survival were observed. A smaller proportion of patients with localized stage OPC were treated, especially among those aged 65 years and older, suggesting that further research is needed for optimal patient outcomes.

Keywords

Humans, Male, Female, United States, Aged, Oropharyngeal Neoplasms, Cross-Sectional Studies, Middle Aged, Incidence, SEER Program, Prevalence, Aged, 80 and over, Adult, Survival Rate

Published Open-Access

yes

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