Making Waves: Integrating Wastewater Surveillance With Dynamic Modeling To Track and Predict Viral Outbreaks

Authors

Tin Phan
Samantha Brozak
Bruce Pell
Jeremiah Oghuan
Anna Gitter
Tao Hu
Ruy M Ribeiro
Ruian Ke
Kristina D Mena
Alan S Perelson
Yang Kuang
Fuqing Wu

Language

English

Publication Date

9-1-2023

Journal

Water Research

DOI

10.1016/j.watres.2023.120372

PMID

37494742

PMCID

PMC12967208

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

3-8-2026

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Author MSS

Abstract

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

Keywords

Humans, COVID-19, Pandemics, Wastewater, Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring, Disease Outbreaks, RNA, Viral, Wastewater surveillance, Viral transmission, Within-host and between-host dynamics, Mechanistic model, Public health preparedness

Published Open-Access

yes

Recommended Citation

Phan, Tin; Brozak, Samantha; Pell, Bruce; et al., "Making Waves: Integrating Wastewater Surveillance With Dynamic Modeling To Track and Predict Viral Outbreaks" (2023). Faculty, Staff and Student Publications. 6785.
https://digitalcommons.library.tmc.edu/uthgsbs_docs/6785