Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

Language

English

Publication Date

5-1-2025

Journal

Journal of Thoracic Oncology

DOI

10.1016/j.jtho.2025.01.003

PMID

39798695

PMCID

PMC12066220

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

5-1-2026

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate how comorbidities affect mortality benefits of lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose computed tomography.

Methods: We developed a comorbidity index (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian comorbidity index [PLCO-ci]) using LCS-eligible participants' data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial (training set) and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) (validation set). PLCO-ci predicts five-year non-lung cancer (LC) mortality using a regularized Cox model; with performance evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. In NLST, LC mortality (per original publication) was compared between low-dose computed tomography and chest radiograph arms across the PLCO-ci quintile (Q1-5) using a cause-specific hazard ratio (csHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: Analyses included 34,690 PLCO and 53,452 NLST participants (mean age: 62 y [±5 y] and 61 y [±5 y], 58% and 59% male individuals, and 39% and 41% active smokers, respectively). PLCO-ci predicted five-year non-LC mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74) in PLCO and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.67-0.70) in NLST. In NLST, at a median follow-up of 6.5 years, LC mortality was significantly reduced for participants with intermediate comorbidity (Q2, Q3, and Q4): csHR 0.62 (95% CI: 0.41-0.95), 0.68 (95% CI: 0.48-0.96), and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54-0.96) respectively, with a nonstatistically significant reduction for Q1 (csHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.45-1.17) and no reduction for Q5 participants (csHR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.79-1.23). Participants in Q2, Q3, and Q4 (60%) accounted for 89% of LC deaths averted among all NLST participants. Q1 participants had low LC incidence, whereas Q5 had higher localized LC lethality, more squamous cell carcinomas, and untreated LC.

Conclusions: The PLCO-ci developed in this work shows that individuals with intermediate comorbidity benefited the most from LCS, highlighting the need of addressing comorbidities to achieve LC mortality benefits.

Keywords

Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Female, Male, Middle Aged, Comorbidity, Aged, Early Detection of Cancer, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Survival Rate, Early Detection of Cancer, Comorbidity, Lung Neoplasms, Shared Decision Making, Tomography

Published Open-Access

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