Upper Age Limits for US Male Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Oropharyngeal Cancer Prevention: A Microsimulation-Based Modeling Study

Authors

Rebecca Landy
Gregory Haber
Barry I Graubard
Nicole G Campos
Stephen Sy
Jane J Kim
Emily A Burger
Li C Cheung
Hormuzd A Katki
Maura L Gillison
Anil K Chaturvedi

Publication Date

4-11-2023

Journal

Journal of the National Cancer Institute

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HVP)-positive oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States. The age at acquisition of oral HPV infections that cause oropharyngeal cancer (causal infections) is unknown; consequently, the benefit of vaccination of US men aged 27-45 years remains uncertain.

METHODS: We developed a microsimulation-based, individual-level, state-transition model of oral HPV16 and HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among heterosexual US men aged 15-84 years, calibrated to population-level data. We estimated the benefit of vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of oropharyngeal cancer, accounting for direct- and indirect effects (ie, herd effects) of male and female vaccination.

RESULTS: In the absence of vaccination, most (70%) causal oral HPV16 infections are acquired by age 26 years, and 29% are acquired between ages 27 and 45 years. Among men aged 15-45 years in 2021 (1976-2006 birth cohorts), status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is estimated to prevent 95% of 153 450 vaccine-preventable cancers. Assuming 100% vaccination in 2021, extending the upper age limit to 30, 35, 40, or 45 years for men aged 27-45 years (1976-1994 cohorts) is estimated to yield small benefits (3.0%, 4.2%, 5.1%, and 5.6% additional cancers prevented, respectively). Importantly, status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is predicted to result in notable declines in HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer incidence in young men by 2035 (51% and 24% declines at ages 40-44 years and 45-49 years, respectively) and noticeable declines (12%) overall by 2045.

CONCLUSION: Most causal oral HPV16 infections in US men are acquired by age 26 years, underscoring limited benefit from vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancers.

Keywords

Humans, Male, Female, United States, Papillomavirus Infections, Papillomavirus Vaccines, Human Papillomavirus Viruses, Vaccination, Oropharyngeal Neoplasms, Cancer Vaccines, Human papillomavirus 16

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Supplementary Materials

PMID: 36655795