Mathematical Modeling to Address Questions in Breast Cancer Screening: An Overview of the Breast Cancer Models of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network

Authors

Oguzhan Alagoz
Jennifer L Caswell-Jin
Harry J de Koning
Hui Huang
Xuelin Huang
Sandra J Lee
Yisheng Li
Sylvia K Plevritis
Swarnavo Sarkar
Clyde B Schechter
Natasha K Stout
Amy Trentham-Dietz
Nicolien van Ravesteyn
Kathryn P Lowry

Language

English

Publication Date

3-18-2025

Journal

Journal of Breast Imaging

DOI

10.1093/jbi/wbaf003

PMID

40036318

PMCID

PMC11920616

PubMedCentral® Posted Date

2-26-2025

PubMedCentral® Full Text Version

Post-print

Abstract

The National Cancer Institute-funded Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer mathematical models have been increasingly utilized by policymakers to address breast cancer screening policy decisions and influence clinical practice. These well-established and validated models have a successful track record of use in collaborations spanning over 2 decades. While mathematical modeling is a valuable approach to translate short-term screening performance data into long-term breast cancer outcomes, it is inherently complex and requires numerous inputs to approximate the impacts of breast cancer screening. This review article describes the 6 independently developed CISNET breast cancer models, with a particular focus on how they represent breast cancer screening and estimate the contribution of screening to breast cancer mortality reduction and improvements in life expectancy. We also describe differences in structures and assumptions across the models and how variation in model results can highlight areas of uncertainty. Finally, we offer insight into how the results generated by the models can be used to aid decision-making regarding breast cancer screening policy.

Keywords

Humans, Breast Neoplasms, Female, Early Detection of Cancer, Models, Theoretical, United States, Mammography, mammography screening, simulation modeling, mammography, breast cancer screening

Published Open-Access

yes

Recommended Citation

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Caswell-Jin, Jennifer L; de Koning, Harry J; et al., "Mathematical Modeling to Address Questions in Breast Cancer Screening: An Overview of the Breast Cancer Models of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network" (2025). Faculty, Staff and Student Publications. 5874.
https://digitalcommons.library.tmc.edu/uthgsbs_docs/5874